Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Manufacturing Employment Growth
Across Alaska Counties
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2019 and 2019
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
Alaska:
2010-2019 = 0.19%
2019 = 1.20%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of manufacturing employment growth across all of Alaska's 34 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Alaska Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the manufacturing employment growth of Alaska's 34 counties over the year (2019) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2019). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2019 and 2019
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
Alaska:
2010-2019 = 0.19%
2019 = 1.20%
This figure displays the 34 counties of Alaska as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2019), and the horizontal axis representing the manufacturing employment growth rate for the near-term (2019).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term manufacturing employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 0.19%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.19% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (0.19%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 4 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2019, while 6 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 3 counties whose most recent (2019) manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.20%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 7 counties whose manufacturing employment growth over 2019 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 34 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2019) and near-term (2019) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 0.19% over 2010-2019 and 1.20% over 2019:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (0.19%) and near-term (1.20%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.19%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Alaska average (1.20%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (0.19%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (1.20%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (0.19%) and near-term (1.20%).
   
 
Summary of Alaska's 34 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(1.20%)
Above
(1.20%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.19%)
2
2
4
Below
(0.19%)
5
1
6
 
7
3
10
 
   
Leading Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Alaska:
2010-2019 = 0.19%
2019 = 1.20%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Alaska counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Alaska's average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2019 = 0.19%) as well as near-term (2019 = 1.20%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Of Alaska's 34 counties, just 2 (6%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Slipping Counties
Alaska:
2010-2019 = 0.19%
2019 = 1.20%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 2 Alaska counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2019 = 0.19%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2019 = 1.20%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Only 2 (6%) of Alaska's 34 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Alaska:
2010-2019 = 0.19%
2019 = 1.20%
This figure shows the distribution of the 1 Alaska county classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2019 = 0.19%), while they outpaced Alaska's average near-term (2019 = 1.20%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Of Alaska's 34 counties, only 3% (1) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Alaska:
2010-2019 = 0.19%
2019 = 1.20%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 5 Alaska counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2019 = 0.19%) as well as near-term (2019 = 1.20%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
15% of Alaska's counties, 5 of 34, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Alaska
Manufacturing Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2019
 
2019
 
 
Leading Counties
 
2
3.17
 
6
6.91
495
 
1
4.02
 
2
34.97
853
Slipping Counties
 
4
0.61
 
13
-2.94
2,738
 
3
2.96
 
15
-4.25
743
Gaining Counties
 
5
-0.03
 
7
6.01
1,288
Lagging Counties
 
10
-2.46
 
11
-0.24
1,668
 
7
-0.98
 
16
-6.89
838
 
9
-2.17
 
17
-9.94
489
 
8
-1.49
 
12
-2.89
1,342
 
6
-0.36
 
20
-40.41
115
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
3
14.19
1,964
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
14
-4.01
670
 
U
U
 
S
S
18
 
U
U
 
9
2.35
654
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
62
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
10
0.00
1
 
U
U
 
8
5.56
190
 
U
U
 
N
N
N
 
U
U
 
4
11.55
589
 
U
U
 
1
77.19
101
 
U
U
 
N
N
N
 
U
U
 
5
10.29
75
 
U
U
 
18
-32.32
67
 
U
U
 
N
N
N
 
U
U
 
19
-37.50
5
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.19
 
1.20
15,552
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.82
 
0.61
13,531,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_510500_LSGL
 
   
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