Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth
Across Alaska Counties
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Employment Growth by County
Alaska:
2010-2020 = -0.32%
2020 = -6.33%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all of Alaska's 34 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Alaska Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of Alaska's 34 counties over the latest available year (2020) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2020). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Employment Growth by County
white dot
Alaska:
2010-2020 = -0.32%
2020 = -6.33%
This figure displays the 34 counties of Alaska as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2020), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2020).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term employment growth exceeded the statewide average of -0.32%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at -0.32% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (-0.32%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 9 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2020, while 19 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 14 counties whose most recent (2020) employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-6.33%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 14 counties whose employment growth over 2020 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 34 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2020) and near-term (2020) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of -0.32% over 2010-2020 and -6.33% over 2020:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are the eight counties whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (-0.32%) and near-term (-6.33%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-0.32%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Alaska average (-6.33%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the six counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (-0.32%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-6.33%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the thirteen counties whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (-0.32%) and near-term (-6.33%).
   
 
Summary of Alaska's 34 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-6.33%)
Above
(-6.33%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(-0.32%)
1
8
9
Below
(-0.32%)
13
6
19
 
14
14
28
 
   
Leading Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Alaska:
2010-2020 = -0.32%
2020 = -6.33%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Alaska counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Alaska's average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2020 = -0.32%) as well as near-term (2020 = -6.33%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020 as noted in the table below.
Of Alaska's 34 counties, 8 (24%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Slipping Counties
white dot
Alaska:
2010-2020 = -0.32%
2020 = -6.33%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 1 Alaska county classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2020 = -0.32%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2020 = -6.33%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
Only 1 ( 3%) of Alaska's 34 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Alaska:
2010-2020 = -0.32%
2020 = -6.33%
This figure shows the distribution of the 6 Alaska counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2020 = -0.32%), while they outpaced Alaska's average near-term (2020 = -6.33%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
Of Alaska's 34 counties, 18% (6) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Alaska:
2010-2020 = -0.32%
2020 = -6.33%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 13 Alaska counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2020 = -0.32%) as well as near-term (2020 = -6.33%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
38% of Alaska's counties, 13 of 34, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
Alaska
Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2020
 
2020
 
 
Leading Counties
 
2
1.41
 
10
-4.00
2,595
 
9
-0.27
 
8
-3.64
55,736
 
4
0.20
 
11
-4.51
30,747
 
1
2.03
 
5
-1.49
39,584
 
6
0.03
 
14
-6.02
4,531
 
7
-0.01
 
4
-1.46
3,241
 
3
1.08
 
12
-4.82
2,983
 
5
0.18
 
13
-5.99
2,619
Slipping Counties
 
8
-0.04
 
24
-14.85
1,078
Gaining Counties
 
17
-0.55
 
2
0.97
3,839
 
15
-0.47
 
9
-3.97
7,786
 
11
-0.38
 
7
-2.64
8,929
 
26
-1.54
 
6
-1.89
2,386
 
19
-0.81
 
3
0.82
3,458
 
20
-1.05
 
1
3.88
455
Lagging Counties
 
18
-0.58
 
15
-6.57
188,790
 
23
-1.38
 
22
-13.80
1,387
 
28
-3.32
 
28
-46.04
1,343
 
22
-1.31
 
19
-11.58
3,100
 
24
-1.40
 
25
-15.68
1,452
 
10
-0.37
 
21
-13.47
1,137
 
16
-0.52
 
18
-9.42
21,408
 
21
-1.06
 
20
-11.61
8,945
 
13
-0.44
 
26
-15.89
2,651
 
27
-1.71
 
23
-13.99
11,320
 
14
-0.47
 
17
-8.48
5,979
 
25
-1.53
 
27
-39.89
743
 
12
-0.42
 
16
-7.82
1,250
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
N
N
N
 
U
U
 
N
N
N
 
U
U
 
N
N
N
 
U
U
 
N
N
N
 
U
U
 
N
N
N
 
U
U
 
N
N
N
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-0.32
 
-6.33
425,953
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.88
 
-5.39
190,776,800
November 2021
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2022. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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