Fairbanks-College MSA vs. Alaska Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Fairbanks-College MSA: 2022 Population = 95,356 2022 Percent of State = 0.03% Alaska: 2022 Population = 733,583 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.22% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Fairbanks-College MSA with comparisons to Alaska and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Fairbanks-College MSA vs. Alaska's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces the Fairbanks-College MSA's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the Fairbanks-College MSA's population rose from 44,738 in 1969 to 95,356 in 2022, for a net gain of 50,618, or 113.14%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Alaska's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Alaska's population rose from 296,000 in 1969 to 733,583 in 2022, for a net gain of 437,583, or 147.83%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows the Fairbanks-College MSA's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Alaska, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Fairbanks-College MSA's overall population growth was 113.14% over 1969-2022 trailed Alaska's increase of 147.83%, and topped the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Alaska Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of the Fairbanks-College MSA is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Alaska's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Alaska's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, the Fairbanks-College MSA's population comprised 15.11% of Alaska's population, while in 2022 it comprised 13.00% thereby yielding a -2.12% share-shift.
Fairbanks-College MSA Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of the Fairbanks-College MSA's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Fairbanks-College MSA's population grew at an annual rate of 1.47% over 1970-2022. The Fairbanks-College MSA recorded its highest growth in 1983 (9.67%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1995 (-1.88%). In 2022, the Fairbanks-College MSA's population declined by -0.18% Fairbanks-College MSA Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some msas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in the Fairbanks-College MSA's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, the Fairbanks-College MSA's annual population growth rate averaged 2.11%. It averaged 3.49% throughout the 1980s, 0.79% throughout the 1990s, 1.34% in the 2000s, 0.17% during the 2010s, -0.48% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Fairbanks-College MSA noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Alaska and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Fairbanks-College MSA's average annual population growth trailed Alaska's average in the 1970s (2.11% vs. 3.17%), surpassed Alaska's average throughout the 1980s (3.49% vs. 3.13%), fell below Alaska's average during the 1990s (0.79% vs. 1.34%), recorded above Alaska's average during the 2000s (1.34% vs. 1.13%), lagged Alaska's average during the 2010s (0.17% vs. 0.51%), and trailed Alaska's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.48% vs. -0.06%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Fairbanks-College MSA exceeded the nation in the 1970s (2.11% vs. 1.10%), outpaced the nation during the 1980s (3.49% vs. 0.95%), recorded underneath the nation during the 1990s (0.79% vs. 1.23%), exceeded the nation throughout the 2000s (1.34% vs. 0.95%), lagged the nation in the 2010s (0.17% vs. 0.74%), and lagged the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.48% vs. 0.31%).
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