Southeast Fairbanks Census Area vs. Alaska Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Southeast Fairbanks Census Area: 2022 Population = 7,021 2022 Percent of State = 0.96% Alaska: 2022 Population = 733,583 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.22% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area with comparisons to Alaska and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area vs. Alaska's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1979-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's annual population for the period 1979-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 44-year period, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's population rose from 5,469 in 1979 to 7,021 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,552, or 28.38%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Alaska's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Alaska's population rose from 296,000 in 1969 to 733,583 in 2022, for a net gain of 437,583, or 147.83%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1979=100): 1979-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Alaska, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1979 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1979 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's overall population growth was 28.38% over 1979-2022 trailed Alaska's increase of 81.79%, and fell below the United States' increase of 48.41%. Population as a Percent of the Alaska Total: 1979-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Alaska's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Alaska's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1979, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's population totaled 1.36% of Alaska's population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.96% thereby yielding a -0.40% share-shift.
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Population: Annual Percent Change, 1980-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1980-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 43-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's population grew at an annual rate of 0.66% over 1980-2022. The census area recorded its highest growth in 2005 (8.44%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1990 (-14.78%). In 2022, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's population grew by 0.23% Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1980-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some census areas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's population since 1980, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1980s, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's annual population growth rate averaged 2.21%. It averaged -0.78% in the 1990s, 1.29% in the 2000s, -0.27% throughout the 2010s, 1.25% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Alaska and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's average annual population growth trailed Alaska's average during the 1980s (2.21% vs. 3.13%), lagged Alaska's average in the 1990s (-0.78% vs. 1.34%), outperformed Alaska's average throughout the 2000s (1.29% vs. 1.13%), fell below Alaska's average during the 2010s (-0.27% vs. 0.51%), and led Alaska's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (1.25% vs. -0.06%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area topped the nation throughout the 1980s (2.21% vs. 0.95%), fell below the nation during the 1990s (-0.78% vs. 1.23%), outperformed the nation throughout the 2000s (1.29% vs. 0.95%), recorded underneath the nation in the 2010s (-0.27% vs. 0.74%), and outpaced the nation over 2020-2022 (1.25% vs. 0.31%).
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