Bethel Census Area vs. Alaska Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Bethel Census Area: 2022 Population = 18,257 2022 Percent of State = 2.49% Alaska: 2022 Population = 733,583 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.22% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Bethel Census Area with comparisons to Alaska and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Bethel Census Area vs. Alaska's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1979-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces the Bethel Census Area's annual population for the period 1979-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 44-year period, the Bethel Census Area's population rose from 11,594 in 1979 to 18,257 in 2022, for a net gain of 6,663, or 57.47%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Alaska's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Alaska's population rose from 296,000 in 1969 to 733,583 in 2022, for a net gain of 437,583, or 147.83%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1979=100): 1979-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows the Bethel Census Area's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Alaska, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1979 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1979 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Bethel Census Area's overall population growth was 57.47% over 1979-2022 trailed Alaska's increase of 81.79%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 48.41%. Population as a Percent of the Alaska Total: 1979-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of the Bethel Census Area is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Alaska's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Alaska's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1979, the Bethel Census Area's population comprised 2.87% of Alaska's population, while in 2022 it totaled 2.49% thereby yielding a -0.38% share-shift.
Bethel Census Area Population: Annual Percent Change, 1980-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of the Bethel Census Area's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1980-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 43-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Bethel Census Area's population grew at an annual rate of 1.07% over 1980-2022. The census area posted its highest growth in 1982 (6.64%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1980 (-4.67%). In 2022, the Bethel Census Area's population declined by -1.84% Bethel Census Area Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1980-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some census areas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in the Bethel Census Area's population since 1980, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1980s, the Bethel Census Area's annual population growth rate averaged 1.73%. It averaged 1.46% in the 1990s, 0.63% throughout the 2000s, 1.03% in the 2010s, -0.77% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Bethel Census Area noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Alaska and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Bethel Census Area's average annual population growth posted below Alaska's average in the 1980s (1.73% vs. 3.13%), exceeded Alaska's average in the 1990s (1.46% vs. 1.34%), fell below Alaska's average during the 2000s (0.63% vs. 1.13%), led Alaska's average in the 2010s (1.03% vs. 0.51%), and amounted to less than Alaska's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.77% vs. -0.06%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Bethel Census Area led the nation throughout the 1980s (1.73% vs. 0.95%), registered above the nation during the 1990s (1.46% vs. 1.23%), fell under the nation during the 2000s (0.63% vs. 0.95%), registered above the nation in the 2010s (1.03% vs. 0.74%), and fell under the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.77% vs. 0.31%).
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