Southeast Fairbanks Census Area vs. Alaska Comparative Trends Analysis: Average Earnings Per Job Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Southeast Fairbanks Census Area: 2022 Avg. Earnings = $91,249 2022 Percent of State = 120.96% Alaska: 2022 Avg. Earnings = $75,436 The United States economy has generated an impressive number of jobs since the 1970s. The contrast between the nation's vigorous employment growth and the modest performance of other major industrial countries is striking. Despite this rosy track record, the real (inflation adjusted) wages and salaries of many workers have stagnated or slipped in recent years. This development has provoked concerns about the quality of new jobs. Structural shifts in the composition of employment--from high-wage goods-producing to low-wage services-related sectors--is the culprit most often cited for the deteriorating quality of jobs. Regions vary greatly in the make-up of their labor force, in their industry composition of employment, and their economic experience. Reviewing and examining recent developments in average earnings per job in the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area with comparisons to Alaska and the nation is an important first step in understanding the economic forces at play in the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area. Discussion: Average Annual Earnings Per Job are computed by dividing BEA total industry earnings estimates by the BEA total full- and part-time jobs estimates. No convenient or adequate means exist at the county or regional level for converting the job estimates to a full-time equivalent measure. So, interpret the average earnings per job estimates with caution in consideration of the following issues: Average earnings per job within industries involving more part-time work is lower than industries involving more full-time work, although there could be little difference in the underlying wage of full-time workers. Such differences could also prevail between counties and regions. An increase in the proportion of part-time jobs over time may erode average earnings per job estimates, although full-time earnings per worker may have remained unchanged. As with per capita income, average earnings per job may be subject to extreme short-run variation, especially in smaller counties. Major construction projects relating to building dams, nuclear power plants, and private plant construction projects have caused extreme fluctuations in many smaller counties. Such changes typify both small and large agriculture-dependent counties owing to the extreme annual variations in farm incomes. Also, Since average earnings per job are just a simple average, it does not account for variations in the distribution of earnings among high- vs. low-wage jobs. Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Average Earnings Per Job, 1980-2022 Current vs. Constant Dollars Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's annual average earnings per job over 1980-2022 in current and constant (2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area over time. When measured in current dollars, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's average earnings per job increased 384.27%, from $18,842 in 1980 to $91,249 in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 62.46%, from $48,403 in 1980 to $78,633 in 2022. Real Average Earnings Per Job, 1979-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's and Alaska's annual real average earnings per job for the period 1979-2022 to illustrate real average earnings per job patterns over time. During this 44-year period, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's real average earnings per job rose from $50,893 in 1979 to $78,633 in 2022, for a net gain of $27,741, or 54.51%. In comparison, Alaska's real average earnings per job increased from $61,300 in 1979 to $65,007 in 2022, for a net gain of $3,707, or 6.05%. Real Average Earnings Per Job Indices (1979=100): 1979-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's real average earnings per job growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Alaska, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real average earnings per job in 1979 as a base figure of 100, and the real average earnings per jobs in later years as a percentage of the 1979 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real average earnings per job growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's overall real average earnings per job growth was 54.51% over 1979-2022 outpaced Alaska's increase of 6.05%, and topped the United States' increase of 48.81%. Average Earnings Per Job as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1979-2022 Figure 4. Figure 4 depicts the trends for average earnings per job relative to the national average by tracing the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area and Alaska average earnings per job as a percent of the national average over 1979-2022. In 1979, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's average earnings per job amounted to 122.77% of the national average; in 2022, it approximated 127.47%. Similarly, in 1979, Alaska's average earnings per job totaled 147.87% of the national average; in 2022, it consisted of 105.38%. Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Real Average Earnings Per Job: Annual Percent Change, 1980-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's real average earnings per job growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1980-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 43-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's real average earnings per job grew at an annual rate of 1.16% over 1980-2022. The census area recorded its highest growth in 2005 (15.21%) and posted its lowest growth in 1987 (-14.69%). In 2022, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's real average earnings per job declined by -2.56% Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Real Average Earnings Per Job: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1980-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some census areas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's real average earnings per job since 1980, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1980s, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's annual real average earnings per job growth rate averaged -1.39%. It averaged 0.48% in the 1990s, 4.73% throughout the 2000s, 0.86% in the 2010s, 0.99% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Real Average Earnings Per Job Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Alaska and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's average annual real average earnings per job growth lagged Alaska's average in the 1980s (-1.39% vs. -1.07%), exceeded Alaska's average in the 1990s (0.48% vs. -0.11%), outgained Alaska's average throughout the 2000s (4.73% vs. 1.78%), topped Alaska's average during the 2010s (0.86% vs. 0.54%), and outperformed Alaska's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.99% vs. -1.48%). Finally, relative to nationwide real average earnings per job growth trends, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area recorded underneath the nation over the 1980s (-1.39% vs. 0.71%), recorded underneath the nation over the 1990s (0.48% vs. 1.68%), topped the nation in the 2000s (4.73% vs. 0.72%), recorded underneath the nation over the 2010s (0.86% vs. 1.01%), and led the nation over 2020-2022 (0.99% vs. -0.24%).
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