Petersburg Census Area vs. Alaska Comparative Trends Analysis: Average Earnings Per Job Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Petersburg Census Area: 2022 Avg. Earnings = $57,171 2022 Percent of State = 75.79% Alaska: 2022 Avg. Earnings = $75,436 The United States economy has generated an impressive number of jobs since the 1970s. The contrast between the nation's vigorous employment growth and the modest performance of other major industrial countries is striking. Despite this rosy track record, the real (inflation adjusted) wages and salaries of many workers have stagnated or slipped in recent years. This development has provoked concerns about the quality of new jobs. Structural shifts in the composition of employment--from high-wage goods-producing to low-wage services-related sectors--is the culprit most often cited for the deteriorating quality of jobs. Regions vary greatly in the make-up of their labor force, in their industry composition of employment, and their economic experience. Reviewing and examining recent developments in average earnings per job in the Petersburg Census Area with comparisons to Alaska and the nation is an important first step in understanding the economic forces at play in the Petersburg Census Area. Discussion: Average Annual Earnings Per Job are computed by dividing BEA total industry earnings estimates by the BEA total full- and part-time jobs estimates. No convenient or adequate means exist at the county or regional level for converting the job estimates to a full-time equivalent measure. So, interpret the average earnings per job estimates with caution in consideration of the following issues: Average earnings per job within industries involving more part-time work is lower than industries involving more full-time work, although there could be little difference in the underlying wage of full-time workers. Such differences could also prevail between counties and regions. An increase in the proportion of part-time jobs over time may erode average earnings per job estimates, although full-time earnings per worker may have remained unchanged. As with per capita income, average earnings per job may be subject to extreme short-run variation, especially in smaller counties. Major construction projects relating to building dams, nuclear power plants, and private plant construction projects have caused extreme fluctuations in many smaller counties. Such changes typify both small and large agriculture-dependent counties owing to the extreme annual variations in farm incomes. Also, Since average earnings per job are just a simple average, it does not account for variations in the distribution of earnings among high- vs. low-wage jobs. Petersburg Census Area Average Earnings Per Job, 2010-2022 Current vs. Constant Dollars Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts the Petersburg Census Area's annual average earnings per job over 2010-2022 in current and constant (2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of the Petersburg Census Area over time. When measured in current dollars, the Petersburg Census Area's average earnings per job increased 17.70%, from $48,573 in 2010 to $57,171 in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it declined -8.19%, from $53,663 in 2010 to $49,267 in 2022. Real Average Earnings Per Job, 2009-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces the Petersburg Census Area's and Alaska's annual real average earnings per job for the period 2009-2022 to illustrate real average earnings per job patterns over time. During this 14-year period, the Petersburg Census Area's real average earnings per job rose from $46,569 in 2009 to $49,267 in 2022, for a net gain of $2,698, or 5.79%. In comparison, Alaska's real average earnings per job increased from $64,610 in 2009 to $65,007 in 2022, for a net advance of $397, or 0.61%. Real Average Earnings Per Job Indices (2009=100): 2009-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows the Petersburg Census Area's real average earnings per job growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Alaska, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real average earnings per job in 2009 as a base figure of 100, and the real average earnings per jobs in later years as a percentage of the 2009 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real average earnings per job growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Petersburg Census Area's overall real average earnings per job growth was 5.79% over 2009-2022 outpaced Alaska's increase of 0.61%, and fell below the United States' increase of 9.62%. Average Earnings Per Job as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 2009-2022 Figure 4. Figure 4 portrays the trends for average earnings per job relative to the national average by tracing the Petersburg Census Area and Alaska average earnings per job as a percent of the national average over 2009-2022. In 2009, the Petersburg Census Area's average earnings per job amounted to 82.75% of the national average; in 2022, it approximated 79.86%. Similarly, in 2009, Alaska's average earnings per job totaled 114.81% of the national average; in 2022, it consisted of 105.38%. Petersburg Census Area Real Average Earnings Per Job: Annual Percent Change, 2010-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of the Petersburg Census Area's real average earnings per job growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 2010-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 13-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Petersburg Census Area's real average earnings per job grew at an annual rate of 0.65% over 2010-2022. The census area recorded its highest growth in 2010 (15.23%) and posted its lowest growth in 2022 (-14.15%). In 2022, the Petersburg Census Area's real average earnings per job declined by -14.15% Petersburg Census Area Real Average Earnings Per Job: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 2010-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some census areas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in the Petersburg Census Area's real average earnings per job since 2010, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 2010s, the Petersburg Census Area's annual real average earnings per job growth rate averaged 2.00%. It averaged -3.87% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Real Average Earnings Per Job Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Petersburg Census Area noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Alaska and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Petersburg Census Area's average annual real average earnings per job growth registered above Alaska's average during the 2010s (2.00% vs. 0.54%), and lagged Alaska's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-3.87% vs. -1.48%). Finally, relative to nationwide real average earnings per job growth trends, the Petersburg Census Area topped the nation in the 2010s (2.00% vs. 1.01%), and posted below the nation over 2020-2022 (-3.87% vs. -0.24%).
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